Taken from lecture 1 of Statistical Rethinking course (around the 44 minute mark). The course material is also on Github.
How to draw an "owl" version 1:
- Create generative simulation (GS)
- Write an estimator
- Validate estimator using simulated data
- Analyze real data: ...
- Reuse 1 to compute hypothetical interventions
How to draw an "owl" version 2:
- Theoretical estimand
- Scientific causal models
- Use 1 & 2 to build statistical models
- Simulate from 2 that 3 yields 1
- Analyze real data