How to Draw an Owl

Taken from lecture 1 of Statistical Rethinking course (around the 44 minute mark). The course material is also on Github.

How to draw an "owl" version 1:

  1. Create generative simulation (GS)
  2. Write an estimator
  3. Validate estimator using simulated data
  4. Analyze real data: ...
  5. Reuse 1 to compute hypothetical interventions

How to draw an "owl" version 2:

  1. Theoretical estimand
  2. Scientific causal models
  3. Use 1 & 2 to build statistical models
  4. Simulate from 2 that 3 yields 1
  5. Analyze real data

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