How to Draw an Owl

Taken from lecture 1 of Statistical Rethinking course (around the 44 minute mark). The course material is also on Github.

How to draw an "owl" version 1:

1. Create generative simulation (GS)
2. Write an estimator
3. Validate estimator using simulated data
4. Analyze real data: ...
5. Reuse 1 to compute hypothetical interventions

How to draw an "owl" version 2:

1. Theoretical estimand
2. Scientific causal models
3. Use 1 & 2 to build statistical models
4. Simulate from 2 that 3 yields 1
5. Analyze real data